Beginners guide to Poker Expected Value

Expected Value, or EV, is a term used in poker to measure the average gain or loss of a specific play over the long run. In simpler terms, if you were to play a certain hand an infinite number of times, what would be your average win or loss?

If we start with the basic example of flipping a coin, the coin has a 50% chance of landing on heads and a 50% chance of landing on tails. If you and a friend wager $1 on each flip, you would both expect to win half the time. The EV of this bet is $0, as, over time, you’ll win as often as you lose.

However, if your friend offers $1 each time you win, but you would lose $2 every time you lose, the EV can illustrate why this is a bad bet. On average, for every 2 flips, you win $1 and lose $2, resulting in a net loss of $1 every 2 flips. This means your EV is -$0.50 per flip.

Consider a scenario where you have Aces and your opponent has Kings. Both are strong hands and going all-in pre-flop is a common strategy.

Using a PokerWired.com Odds Calculator, we can calculate that Aces should win 81% of the time against Kings pre-flop. But what does this mean for your bankroll?

Imagine both you and your opponent have $50 stacks, and you go all-in pre-flop. The total pot is $100. With Aces winning 81% of the time, your EV for this hand is $81 (81% of $100).

To further illustrate, if you and your opponent bet $100 each for 100 hands, with you holding AA and your opponent KK, you’d calculate your EV as follows:

This means that, over the 100 hands, you can expect a profit of $6,200.

Understanding and calculating EV is a fundamental skill for any serious poker player. It helps you identify profitable situations and avoid costly mistakes, ultimately enhancing your long-term success in the game. By consistently making positive EV plays and steering clear of negative EV situations, you set yourself on the path to becoming a more proficient and successful poker player.

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